Not time for celebration yet

入正題前,想先說說過去半年在上學時的經歷:我在K大所讀的那個課程,外國學生的比例也可算是高的一類,本土生與外國生應該是五五之比吧。本來大夥兒都有說有笑的,但是在自年初起,差不多每次教授宣布休息時,一眾同學的話題,很多時候都扯到美國民主黨的選戰上。

班中一名來自賓夕凡尼亞州的女子,可說是鐵杆的希拉妮支持者,每次提起奧巴馬都諸多批評;另外兩名在紐約州的高等學府(沒記錯的話,其中一個應該是康奈爾的畢業生)讀書、不約而同的都是華裔生的同學,則是不折不扣的奧巴馬擁躉,也是同樣的對希拉妮看不順眼。結果每次談到希拉妮對奧巴馬時,這三人例必擦出火花,不乏刺激場面--也間中不乏非理性的對罵。真的。

至於男士們呢?很奇怪,全部都保持靜默,最多只有本人加入戰團,支持一下挺希拉妮的同學(先在此聲明,我是傾向支持希拉妮的)。後來有次與這名同學「酒過三巡」,又談起即將舉行的初選(是哪個州不記得了),對方可能是黃湯下肚的緣故吧,只見她愈說愈激動,到最後丟下一句:「如果奧巴馬贏了的話,我寧願將票投給麥凱恩也不給奧巴馬!」

所謂見微知著,奧巴馬在周二晚(香港時間周三早上)奪得獲取民主黨總統提名所需的票數,但是這場歷時半年的選戰,雖然在外人旁觀看來確是好看,但是在民主黨支持者內造成的分裂,也是不容爭議的副產品。希拉妮在周二晚的演說中說,「今晚我不會作出決定」,很明顯是她要利用她在多個重要州份所取得的初選勝利(別忘記,加州、紐約州、賓州等都是她獲勝的),去與奧巴馬討價還價。報道說希拉妮在周二與紐約州議會的議員開會時,「放風」說她對成為奧巴馬的副總統競選拍檔「持開放態度」,就是這個道理。

希拉妮確有理由在這刻不宣布「認輸」。對於奧巴馬來說,這可是一個雙重難題:本來已奪取「魔術數字」的奧巴馬,本已是準民主黨總候選人,他在周二晚的慶祝大會(或勝利演說)選擇在明尼蘇達州的聖保羅舉行,就是有衝著其大選對手麥凱恩而來的意味(只因本年共和黨代表大會就是在該市舉行),但是希拉妮現時不「言敗」,奧巴馬在針對全國選民進行宣傳之前,必須攏平他與希拉妮的恩怨。換言之,本來聚焦在奧巴馬身上的燈光,現時被希拉妮「叨」了,這亦令早已佔了先機的麥凱恩,還有繼續針對民主黨來追打的餘裕;第二,正如《紐約時報》的分析指出那般,奧希配固然是天作之合,但是也有可能出現支持希拉妮、但不願投票給非裔候選人的選民,放棄支持奧巴馬的情形,現時希拉妮放風稱願意當副手,但這絕不是無敵的配方。

當然,如果奧希配最後成立,得的應該還是多於失的,但是若然兩人撮合不成,對奧巴馬的傷害可能很大。從這半年的初選粗略可見,希拉妮的基本盤是女性、白人工人階級、年紀較大者,奧巴馬的基本盤則是非裔民眾、接受較高等教育者、年青人(因此奧巴馬也招來精英主義者的批抨),如果是希拉妮奪得提名,後者因為求「變」心切,最後都應傾向在大選中投民主黨的票,但若是奧巴馬奪得提名,希拉妮的基本盤的「游離票」可能會流向麥凱恩那邊(此時又想起我那名同學的「誓言」)。另一方面,如果奧希配成立,而這個配搭最後成功入主白宮的話,以希拉妮的性格而言,她很可能會成為比切尼權力更加大的副總統--試問她豈會寂寂無聞地,四年躲在奧巴馬的背後?

奧巴馬成為首名來自主要政黨的非裔候選人,其代表性毋庸置疑;他提出的「轉變」(Change)的口號及主題,對於受了布殊快八年的美國人來說,也是極吸引的,這加上他的個人魅力,令他在面對麥凱恩時佔了優勢,以「理性」為主的「投資者」,也看好奧巴馬勝出。然而以煽動民眾見長的奧巴馬,在真正的選戰中,與麥凱恩就政策等實質問題進行交鋒時,有多少「真材實料」尚有待觀察,亦值得留意的是,傳媒對於奧巴馬的Hype,也不一定反應在民意上--《今日美國報》與蓋洛普進行、在周二公布的民調,就顯示奧巴馬與麥凱恩的支持率,只是相差兩個百分點(還沒有計算四個百分點的誤差)。總之,現在不是大事慶祝的時候。

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9 Responses to “Not time for celebration yet”


  • using Internet Explorer Internet Explorer 7.0 on Windows Windows Vista

    Obama-Clinton,應該是奧希(其實更應是奧克)配,不是希奧配!;)

    我是比較支持希拉妮的,但大局已定,只怪她去年太掉以輕心。為了安撫民心,我想奧巴馬一定會找個辦法安置她的。就算希拉妮當副總統可能爭權,也只能"chalk it up to necessary evil"了。

  • using Mozilla Firefox Mozilla Firefox 2.0.0.14 on Mac OS Mac OS

    哎,肯定是我潛意識作祟,心底裡還是想希拉妮勝出!

  • using Mozilla Firefox Mozilla Firefox 2.0.0.14 on Windows Windows XP

    我覺得那個說「如果奧巴馬贏了的話,我寧願將票投給麥凱恩也不給奧巴馬!」的人﹐根本不是真正的民主黨支持者。對我來說﹐這樣的說法簡直可以說是十分愚蠢。

    麥凱恩跟奧巴馬的政策實在差天共地﹐若大家都因只對人不對事而將未來的8年交給一個和布殊有一樣戰爭和經濟政策的人﹐就實在太令人失望了。

  • using Mozilla Firefox Mozilla Firefox 2.0.0.14 on Windows Windows XP

    不過﹐其實我是不大贊同奧希配的。的確﹐有很多人不會選一個黑人做總統﹐但其實美國也有更多的人非常非常憎恨希拉妮。若說希拉妮能幫奧巴馬拉票的話﹐反過來說希拉妮亦會令奧巴馬失去很多的票數。兩種說法都有根據﹐所以真的很難說。。。

  • using Safari Safari 525.18 on Mac OS X Mac OS X 10.4.11

    同意樓上。在選前計算甚麼electability,都是觀點與角度的問題(選後講則只是事後孔明)。

  • using Mozilla Firefox Mozilla Firefox 2.0.0.14 on Windows Windows 2000

    一般香港人睇見奧巴馬黑人的身份,只會著重於白人會不會投他一票的觀點上,其實來緊的美國大選,雙方的著眼點,應該係拉丁裔的選民上,有睇過電視劇白害群英(第六、第七季),應該會了解在下的觀點。

    當年劇集播影時,沈旭輝教授分析過,究竟會有黑人先,還是拉美血統的人,可以當成美國總統,佢當時的分析,認為拉美裔的機會會大一點,因為拉丁美裔的人口不斷上升,這一分析在今天來看,可能會係錯,但帶出了重點,美國總統的選舉,不是黑白人之爭,還有拉丁美州的新移民,這些才可能是決定因數,正如小布殊拿聖經帶的票勝戈爾

    這一點香港的傳媒還未見觸及,這是選擇副總統候選人的重點,連前總統卡達都說,奧巴馬搭希拉莉會是錯誤的決定,奧巴馬跟本就唔想搭佢,我反而認為佢搭有拉美血統的新墨西哥州長才是上算,反之麥肯亦可能,找個有拉美血裔的人來當副總統候選人。

    如果奧巴馬同意希拉莉當vp,我想早幾天希拉莉便會退選,不用拖到現在。民主黨內的院老,JOHN KERRY早於超級星期二前已ENDORSE 奧巴馬、KENNDY家族亦在未超希拉莉前已ENDORSE,希拉莉係黨內的大老,跟本沒有什麼支持,戈爾亦係非常反CLINTON的一員,今天連卡達都反對麼夢幻奧希配,希拉莉已成歷史。

    在此聲明本人非常討厭CLINTON。

  • using Mozilla Firefox Mozilla Firefox 3.0 on Mac OS X Mac OS X 10

    冬冬:可能你是鐵杆的民主黨支持者,但是我旁觀我那三名女同學的爭拗時,也是發現那兩名奧巴馬支持者,好像也曾說過不會投票給希拉妮的話...

    PK_LSD:同意拉丁裔是不容忽視的票源,但是在這半年的初選中,如果沒有記錯的話,拉丁裔也是較傾向希拉妮的。雖然拉丁裔人口在增加是不爭的事實,不過相比起女性票或白人票,如果說是拉丁裔比這兩批人更重要,很像欠了一點說服力。

    至於希拉妮是否已成為歷史,這一刻未宜太早下定論。之前半年的選戰,好幾次都以為她死定了,最後還是力挽狂瀾,我會建議看看她在周六的演說中說些甚麼,才再評估一下。

  • using Internet Explorer Internet Explorer 7.0 on Windows Windows XP

    Oh thank you for this piece. I am a Hillary supporter too (and have blogged about her candidacy for quite a bit of time now). I’m grateful on behalf of your Hillary supporting classmate that you sometimes joined in the debates so that it wasn’t just two-against-one.

    Obviously by now Hillary has graciously conceded. Personally I have nothing particularly against Obama – indeed, to use his own words, I find him “likeable enough”. What really turns me off are his fanatical supporters (the vitriol and Hilllary hate spewed in online blogs by Obamatons is something to behold), and his less-than-clean campaign, despite his own vaunting rhetoric (which I’ve just blogged about).

    Re: the Latino vote, actually they strongly backed Clinton, so if Obama is serious about courting their votes, he would be wise to pick Hillary as a running mate. There just simply isn’t a Latino VP candidate charismatic enough on the scene yet to draw general election votes, either on the Repugs or the Democrats’ side. And if Obama is indeed trying to pick a Latino VP, then the ticket may potentially be considered by the white majority in the U.S. as simply too much (sad but true). So PK_LSD’s suggestion is just way too unrealistic in the current political climate.

    In any case, Obama’s problem is not so much with the Latinos per se, it is with WOMEN sick of the sexist campaign tactics and misogynistic media coverage that has pervaded this primary season. That is the reason why they are outraged, and why it is actually wise for Clinton NOT to concede immediately on Tuesday night, when she had just won South Dakota. Her 18 million strong supporters would not have allowed her to concede that night, irrespective of her own feelings or her desire to steal Obama’s limelight.

    Anyway, just to address a couple of points in PK_LSD’s comment:

    PK wrote “如果奧巴馬同意希拉莉當vp,我想早幾天希拉莉便會退選,不用拖到現在。民主黨內的院老,JOHN KERRY早於超級星期二前已ENDORSE 奧巴馬、KENNDY家族亦在未超希拉莉前已ENDORSE,希拉莉係黨內的大老,跟本沒有什麼支持,戈爾亦係非常反CLINTON的一員,今天連卡達都反對麼夢幻奧希配,希拉莉已成歷史。”

    John Kerry is not being held in that high a regard within the Democratic party after his failed bid to oust Bush back in 2004. Also, it is untrue to say that the entire Kennedy family has come on the side of Obama. Edward and Caroline Kennedy endorsed Obama; but three of Bobby Kennedy’s onsprings endorsed Clinton (and in fact why the whole RFK assassination claim being a veiled suggestion for Obama assassination is a complete lie; Clinton was comparing herself to Bobby, and if she’s suggesting anything about assasination – which she didn’t – it would have been in reference to herself!). Carter’s endorsement came very late, but it’s not surprising that he plumbs for Obama (after all, there are many similarities between Carter’s and Obama’s candidacies, and not many of these similarities bode too well for the general election, see the most recent front page article in the New York Metro magazine). Gore actually hasn’t declared his endorsement for anybody. And actually he would have been my Number One choice has he consented to the Draft Gore campaign.

    In any case, the point is not so much for the DLC party elders thought. There is a whole schism between the Dem Party leadership and its rank and file members because of the whole convoluted primary process (Michigan and Florida in particular). Getting endorsement from the Party elders no longer carry the kind of weight with ordinary voters come General Election time as they might have been, especially when millions are still angry with the Dem party’s wussy conduct over NOT impeaching Bush and Cheney for their war crimes.

    PK wrote: “在此聲明本人非常討厭CLINTON。”

    Thank you for the disclosure. But WHY???? Where did your hate stem from? But your being upfront about it as an Obama supporter explains a lot of the vitriol that has been directed in online at Hillary supporters, where there is zero room for rational debates, just a whole hate fest. Given this context, even though I don’t approve of it and think it rather silly and counterproductive, I can understand the sentiments of Hillary supporters like Alex’s classmate who vowed to vote McCain rather than vote for Obama. If the Obama supporters have shown even a modicum of respect to their Hillary counterparts during the primary season, they won’t be fomenting this movement of McCainocrats and new bloc of female swing voters. Disrespectfully telling (or in many cases just plain threatening) Hillary that she has to work flat out to move women votes to Obama, without the Obama camp actually trying to address women’s concerns in concrete manners (not just in another pretty speech), would just make more women determined to vote McCain. Telling voters that they have no viable alternative but to vote for you is a sure way of losing people’s votes.

  • using Internet Explorer Internet Explorer 7.0 on Windows Windows XP

    Sorry for my typos here and there. But I especially want to correct this one: I meant “Bobby Kennedy’s OFFsprings” and not “Bobby Kennedy’s onsprings”!

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